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人民币基金募资难,美元基金再崛起?LP:中国投资市场还需沉淀

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年11月18日 17:11:25
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(投)(资)(的)(本)(质)(是)(认)(知)(变)(现)(
源)(于)(修)(为)(、贵)(在)(定)(力)(、难)(在)(自)(律)(
今)(年)(,熠)(美)(在)(中)(国)(市)(场)(采)(取)(的)(是)(“稳)(健)(”策)(略)(:专)(注)(自)(己)(擅)(长)(的)(领)(域)(,放)(缓)(扩)(张)(的)(步)(伐)(。胡)(焕)(瑞)(表)(示)(,作)(为)(合)(格)(的)(LP,熠)(美)(会)(坚)(守)(,不)(会)(从)(市)(场)(撤)(出)(。待)(几)(年)(后)(市)(场)(回)(归)(理)(性)(,熠)(美)(会)(更)(积)(极)(地)(拓)(展)(。如)(果)(LP此)(时)(撤)(出)(了)(,想)(要)(再)(回)(来)(时)(将)(没)(有)(立)(足)(之)(地)(。
“这)(一)(轮)(募)(资)(难)(很)(正)(常)(,在)(任)(何)(资)(本)(市)(场)(募)(资)(都)(不)(容)(易)(,近)(几)(年)(,大)(量)(资)(本)(涌)(入)(,募)(资)(在)(中)(国)(市)(场)(看)(似)(变)(得)(容)(易)(了)(。但)(现)(在)(看)(,市)(场)(底)(部)(的)(一)(些)(投)(资)(机)(构)(势)(必)(会)(被)(淘)(汰)(掉)(。VC行)(业)(、特)(别)(是)(人)(民)(币)(基)(金)(的)(重)(估)(和)(出)(清)(,对)(整)(个)(行)(业)(的)(健)(康)(发)(展)(来)(说)(都)(会)(是)(一)(件)(好)(事)(。”
“投)(资)(是)(对)(世)(界)(的)(认)(知)(变)(现)(,源)(于)(修)(为)(、贵)(在)(定)(力)(、难)(在)(自)(律)(”,胡)(焕)(瑞)(说)(,好)(的)(投)(资)(人)(,很)(多)(时)(候)(需)(要)(做)(出)(与)(市)(场)(趋)(势)(相)(反)(的)(决)(策)(,这)(是)(反)(人)(性)(的)(,需)(要)(对)(世)(界)(有)(极)(其)(深)(刻)(的)(洞)(察)(,“考)(验)(修)(为)(,考)(验)(定)(力)(,没)(有)(十)(年)(八)(年)(的)(沉)(淀)(是)(不)(可)(能)(成)(型)(的)(,没)(有)(捷)(径)(”。
三)(十)(年)(的)(全)(球)(经)(验)(,让)(熠)(美)(经)(历)(了)(多)(个)(经)(济)(周)(期)(的)(起)(伏)(,也)(见)(证)(了)(不)(同)(时)(期)(的)(“起)(落)(兴)(衰)(”。熠)(美)(沉)(淀)(下)(来)(的)(,是)(对)(市)(场)(的)(深)(刻)(理)(解)(,在)(行)(业)(中)(不)(断)(沉)(淀)(的)(“修)(为)(和)(定)(力)(”,和)(在)(不)(同)(的)(市)(场)(环)(境)(对)(“修)(为)(和)(定)(力)(”的)(坚)(持)(。这)(也)(是)(熠)(美)(之)(所)(以)(能)(够)(做)(到)(十)(年)(年)(化)(收)(益)(率)(46%的)(原)(因)(。
熠)(美)(在)(中)(国)(市)(场)(的)(投)(资)(策)(略)(和)(原)(则)(延)(续)(全)(球)(标)(准)(:70%的)(资)(本)(投)(给)(子)(基)(金)(,只)(投)(topperformance(市)(场)(上)(回)(报)(前)(10%)的)(基)(金)(。“我)(们)(内)(部)(的)(标)(准)(是)(子)(基)(金)(的)(回)(报)(至)(少)(在)(3倍)(以)(上)(,但)(是)(做)(到)(这)(点)(并)(不)(容)(易)(”,胡)(焕)(瑞)(说)(到)(,“专)(注)(、专)(业)(、勤)(奋)(和)(坚)(持)(是)(这)(个)(行)(业)(能)(够)(基)(业)(长)(青)(的)(不)(二)(法)(门)(”。
在)(具)(体)(执)(行)(层)(面)(,熠)(美)(还)(有)(一)(个)(非)(常)(苛)(刻)(的)(标)(准)(——1%的)(筛)(选)(率)(。看)(100个)(项)(目)(只)(投)(1个)(,对)(GP的)(核)(心)(合)(伙)(人)(做)(至)(少)(15个)(背)(景)(调)(查)(。“这)(个)(行)(业)(变)(化)(很)(快)(,必)(须)(要)(看)(足)(够)(多)(的)(基)(金)(并)(做)(足)(尽)(调)(,才)(能)(真)(正)(做)(到)(全)(面)(了)(解)(一)(个)(基)(金)(”,胡)(焕)(瑞)(解)(释)(说)(。
在)(尽)(调)(过)(程)(中)(,熠)(美)(看)(重)(的)(是)(GP的)(自)(身)(能)(力)(是)(否)(能)(够)(支)(持)(、且)(持)(续)(产)(生)(一)(流)(回)(报)(。“有)(的)(基)(金)(投)(100个)(项)(目)(中)(1个)(,可)(能)(会)(有)(很)(高)(的)(回)(报)(,但)(我)(们)(要)(的)(不)(是)(这)(种)(瞎)(猫)(碰)(到)(死)(耗)(子)(式)(的)(回)(报)(。”熠)(美)(有)(近)(30%的)(资)(金)(会)(布)(局)(老)(兵)(出)(来)(做)(的)(first-timefund(新)(基)(金)()。根)(据)(过)(往)(经)(验)(,这)(样)(的)(新)(基)(金)(更)(有)(可)(能)(出)(业)(绩)(。
除)(了)(投)(给)(子)(基)(金)(的)(70%的)(资)(金)(,熠)(美)(另)(有)(30%的)(资)(金)(会)(配)(到)(跟)(投)(项)(目)(中)(。熠)(美)(对)(跟)(投)(项)(目)(的)(要)(求)(更)(高)(些)(:要)(有)(5倍)(以)(上)(回)(报)(。而)(熠)(美)(在)(直)(投)(业)(务)(上)(的)(投)(资)(策)(略)(是)(:只)(投)(自)(己)(熟)(悉)(的)(行)(业)(:TMT、大)(健)(康)(、大)(消)(费)(;只)(投)(资)(金)(认)(可)(的)(、建)(立)(了)(长)(期)(合)(作)(关)(系)(的)(GP的)(项)(目)(;跟)(GP同)(轮)(投)(资)(,主)(动)(投)(资)(,基)(金)(参)(与)(到)(后)(续)(的)(服)(务)(中)(。熠)(美)(投)(资)(团)(队)(的)(成)(员)(,大)(都)(为)(直)(投)(出)(身)(,能)(够)(深)(入)(了)(解)(项)(目)(,真)(正)(做)(到)(优)(中)(选)(优)(。
当)(然)(,VC是)(“快)(速)(发)(展)(、动)(感)(很)(强)(”的)(行)(业)(,FOF需)(要)(不)(断)(更)(新)(自)(己)(的)(投)(资)(组)(合)(。无)(论)(是)(在)(美)(国)(还)(是)(在)(中)(国)(,能)(够)(做)(到)(十)(期)(、二)(十)(期)(的)(VC都)(很)(少)(。从)(2014、2015年)(至)(今)(,中)(国)(的)(风)(险)(投)(资)(市)(场)(正)(在)(逐)(渐)(发)(展)(,从)(平)(台)(化)(投)(资)(到)(投)(资)(行)(业)(精)(细)(化)(分)(工)(再)(到)(发)(掘)(局)(部)(行)(业)(机)(会)(,投)(资)(机)(构)(变)(得)(越)(来)(越)(专)(业)(。但)(熠)(美)(评)(价)(好)(GP的)(标)(准)(不)(会)(变)(化)(:专)(业)(的)(人)(干)(专)(业)(的)(事)(,专)(注)(、持)(续)(地)(干)(一)(件)(事)(,最)(终)(有)(希)(望)(成)(为)(百)(年)(老)(店)(。
各)(行)(各)(业)(的)(回)(报)(最)(后)(会)(趋)(同)(
看)(清)(商)(业)(本)(质)(,尊)(重)(行)(业)(规)(律)(,长)(线)(布)(局)(
熠)(美)(的)(策)(略)(和)(路)(径)(看)(上)(去)(有)(些)(学)(院)(派)(,这)(源)(于)(几)(个)(经)(济)(周)(期)(的)(考)(验)(、沉)(淀)(和)(积)(累)(下)(的)(经)(验)(,同)(时)(也)(和)(它)(的)(出)(资)(人)(结)(构)(有)(着)(紧)(密)(关)(系)(。大)(学)(基)(金)(会)(、美)(国)(加)(州)(公)(务)(员)(养)(老)(基)(金)(、荷)(兰)(公)(务)(员)(养)(老)(基)(金)(,还)(有)(德)(国)(、意)(大)(利)(、比)(利)(时)(等)(古)(老)(欧)(洲)(家)(族)(的)(家)(族)(办)(公)(室)(,以)(及)(中)(国)(的)(政)(府)(引)(导)(基)(金)(、部)(分)(民)(资)(家)(族)(和)(保)(险)(公)(司)(等)(出)(资)(人)(,都)(需)(要)(一)(个)(相)(对)(严)(谨)(的)(资)(产)(配)(置)(模)(型)(,来)(实)(现)(抗)(周)(期)(的)(稳)(定)(回)(报)(。熠)(美)(投)(资)(在)(美)(国)(持)(有)(的)(项)(目)(,有)(的)(时)(间)(长)(达)(26年)(,回)(报)(在)(300倍)(以)(上)(。
“有)(一)(个)(长)(期)(配)(置)(的)(心)(态)(比)(较)(重)(要)(”,胡)(焕)(瑞)(说)(,熠)(美)(在)(前)(期)(会)(做)(非)(常)(细)(致)(的)(模)(型)(,从)(投)(资)(策)(略)(、产)(品)(配)(置)(到)(现)(金)(流)(周)(期)(都)(囊)(括)(其)(中)(。通)(过)(模)(型)(,熠)(美)(可)(以)(了)(解)(到)(未)(来)(几)(年)(的)(投)(资)(回)(报)(曲)(线)(,再)(根)(据)(客)(户)(委)(托)(的)(具)(体)(资)(金)(状)(况)(,每)(季)(度)(对)(各)(个)(变)(量)(做)(平)(衡)(调)(整)(。
在)(中)(国)(市)(场)(,熠)(美)(延)(续)(了)(美)(元)(基)(金)(在)(全)(球)(市)(场)(一)(以)(贯)(之)(的)(行)(业)(布)(局)(逻)(辑)(:重)(点)(投)(资)(TMT、医)(疗)(、新)(消)(费)(。这)(三)(个)(领)(域)(,在)(基)(金)(投)(资)(配)(比)(中)(各)(占)(三)(成)(。此)(外)(,还)(有)(一)(些)(新)(兴)(但)(却)(属)(于)(刚)(需)(的)(行)(业)(,例)(如)(教)(育)(行)(业)(、智)(能)(制)(造)(业)(,熠)(美)(也)(在)(关)(注)(。
但)(无)(论)(投)(资)(什)(么)(项)(目)(、什)(么)(行)(业)(,胡)(焕)(瑞)(都)(相)(信)(一)(条)(基)(本)(的)(经)(济)(学)(规)(律)(:所)(有)(行)(业)(的)(回)(报)(,最)(终)(一)(定)(是)(趋)(同)(的)(。这)(条)(定)(律)(由)(金)(融)(的)(自)(由)(流)(动)(属)(性)(决)(定)(。供)(需)(的)(天)(平)(左)(右)(摆)(动)(,大)(家)(的)(钱)(充)(分)(流)(动)(起)(来)(,各)(行)(业)(间)(的)(利)(润)(差)(就)(会)(被)(逐)(渐)(摊)(平)(。
回)(顾)(中)(美)(两)(国)(VC行)(业)(的)(发)(展)(历)(程)(,能)(够)(为)(这)(条)(定)(律)(找)(到)(注)(解)(。美)(国)(市)(场)(有)(自)(然)(的)(成)(长)(过)(程)(。最)(初)(少)(数)(的)(几)(个)(风)(投)(家)(,通)(过)(几)(年)(的)(积)(累)(慢)(慢)(做)(出)(点)(成)(绩)(,影)(响)(更)(多)(的)(人)(参)(与)(其)(中)(。人)(才)(的)(成)(长)(过)(程)(是)(漫)(长)(的)(,任)(何)(新)(人)(的)(进)(入)(都)(不)(容)(易)(。三)(十)(年)(前)(,黑)(石)(集)(团)(从)(四)(十)(万)(美)(元)(起)(家)(,经)(过)(市)(场)(的)(历)(练)(和)(认)(可)(才)(存)(活)(下)(来)(,越)(做)(越)(大)(。
中)(国)(恰)(恰)(相)(反)(。风)(投)(对)(中)(国)(市)(场)(来)(说)(是)(个)(舶)(来)(品)(,2000年)(初)(只)(有)(美)(元)(基)(金)(在)(活)(跃)(,人)(民)(币)(基)(金)(随)(着)(创)(业)(板)(开)(放)(才)(雨)(后)(春)(笋)(般)(冒)(出)(来)(,让)(很)(多)(人)(赚)(到)(了)(钱)(。但)(此)(后)(,各)(类)(资)(本)(大)(潮)(的)(冲)(击)(很)(快)(填)(平)(了)(投)(资)(收)(益)(甚)(至)(产)(生)(溢)(出)(效)(应)(,造)(成)(了)(当)(前)(的)(局)(面)(。
基)(于)(此)(,熠)(美)(不)(会)(投)(资)(“赌)(大)(势)(、追)(风)(口)(”的)(企)(业)(,而)(是)(考)(察)(市)(场)(规)(律)(,理)(清)(项)(目)(本)(质)(,做)(长)(线)(布)(局)(、长)(期)(投)(资)(。早)(在)(2015年)(投)(中)(集)(团)(举)(办)(的)(“全)(球)(LP-GP交)(易)(博)(览)(会)(上)(”,熠)(美)(投)(资)(管)(理)(合)(伙)(人)(叶)(庆)(就)(曾)(表)(示)(,“独)(角)(兽)(太)(多)(了)(,不)(一)(定)(是)(好)(事)(”。在)(硅)(谷)(,一)(个)(项)(目)(融)(资)(到)(C轮)(、D轮)(的)(时)(候)(,投)(资)(人)(反)(而)(会)(变)(得)(警)(觉)(。“A轮)(投)(资)(人)(可)(能)(赚)(钱)(,但)(到)(了)(后)(期)(,可)(能)(会)(套)(在)(里)(面)(很)(难)(出)(来)(。”
胡)(焕)(瑞)(补)(充)(道)(,近)(两)(年)(,资)(本)(市)(场)(钱)(多)(、好)(项)(目)(少)(的)(局)(面)(,一)(度)(让)(不)(少)(明)(星)(项)(目)(获)(得)(很)(高)(的)(估)(值)(,但)(这)(背)(后)(也)(不)(乏)(搅)(局)(者)(刻)(意)(抬)(高)(价)(格)(。“估)(值)(高)(的)(企)(业)(,成)(长)(性)(未)(必)(好)(。对)(理)(性)(的)(投)(资)(人)(来)(说)(,这)(样)(的)(项)(目)(要)(谨)(慎)(出)(手)(。”
此)(外)(,熠)(美)(在)(投)(资)(时)(,也)(不)(会)(赌)(项)(目)(是)(否)(会)(被)(阿)(里)(巴)(巴)(、腾)(讯)(这)(样)(的)(巨)(头)(接)(盘)(。有)(些)(项)(目)(在)(互)(联)(网)(巨)(头)(的)(战)(略)(布)(局)(中)(会)(起)(到)(关)(键)(性)(作)(用)(,但)(如)(果)(企)(业)(自)(身)(能)(力)(、成)(长)(性)(及)(市)(场)(空)(间)(有)(限)(,独)(立)(发)(展)(时)(就)(会)(缺)(少)(竞)(争)(能)(力)(。这)(对)(于)(讲)(求)(投)(资)(回)(报)(率)(的)(投)(资)(机)(构)(来)(说)(,风)(险)(太)(大)(了)(。
熠)(美)(相)(信)(,机)(构)(投)(资)(人)(还)(是)(要)(专)(注)(高)(成)(长)(性)(的)(企)(业)(。无)(论)(大)(环)(境)(是)(好)(是)(坏)(,好)(企)(业)(都)(会)(存)(在)(。即)(便)(IPO收)(紧)(,退)(出)(节)(奏)(变)(得)(慢)(一)(些)(,这)(些)(好)(企)(业)(本)(质)(上)(也)(不)(会)(受)(到)(影)(响)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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